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NFL Weather

NFL bettors need to be aware of how weather impacts scoring. Most important for bettors is knowing the wind. Windy conditions have been profitable for unders. ’
In general, I use 10 mph as the benchmark for “windy” in every sport. I’ve charted how unders have done at certain mph marks, as well as how they’ve done with certain line movement.

Most NFL games are played in comfortable conditions for both fans and players. But there are still some games, especially at the beginning of the season, that are hot — perhaps dangerously so for players, who manage to be drenched in sweat even in freezing conditions.

Historically, the under has prevailed in hot games, which I have defined as 85 degrees or higher. Dating back to 2003, they’ve gone:

   64-49-1, 56.6% win rate, 10.5% ROI

These don’t occur often, as there have been fewer than 10 games per year on average that fit the criteria.

Cold Overs

With the league being played in the Northern Hemisphere, chilly games begin around in late November and December.

Sometimes the temps dip into the 20s or even lower. You’ll be sure to know when those games occur because the broadcast will shove it down your throat.
Cold temperatures provide plenty of value for sharp NFL over/under bettors.

When the thermometer is reading below 30 degrees, here is how the over has fared:

   90-62-1, 59,2% win rate, 15.2% ROI

As you can see, these occur a bit more often than the hot games. And, they’ve been a bit more profitable.

My explanation for this phenomenon is that there is some overcompensation taking place. Books and bettors see that the game is going to be cold and assume that this will lead to fewer points.

If somebody asked me whether it would be easier or harder to score points in the cold, I’d definitely say harder. Hands get cold, making it harder to throw and catch the ball. The air is thin and constrictive, leading to more trips to the sideline oxygen tanks. It seems to be windier than normal even if that’s not actually the case.

All of these assumptions lead to value on the over. Always take advantage of assumptions of the public
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